A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating upheavals for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the people who have won don't know precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the book, none of the commentators supports unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two essays that seek neutrality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue indicates an recognition of the concept that there may exist valid points on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, legitimate points, he said. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
